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Analysts' Insights

Analysts' Insights

Our own Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index turns bullish

1) After four weeks of signalling downside pressure, our Greed & Fear index (exhibit 2) has just turned bullish. Bitcoin prices have been pinned at $29,000 for three weeks, refusing to decline, despite the correction in some large-cap technology stocks (Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft). The 10-year US bond yield has also climbed above 4.0%, which should have been a warning signal for risk asset investors.

2) Two significant catalysts are supporting Bitcoin and Ethereum prices into year-end: the potential SEC approval for a US-listed physical Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum’s EIP-4844 upgrade, which is expected for Q4 2023.

3) Next week, there are two important dates for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to respond to Grayscale’s GBTC lawsuit filing (response deadline August 15, 2023) and to the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF re-filing (response deadline August 13, 2023).

4) More SEC responses will also be expected during the first week of September, when seven other Bitcoin ETF filings are required to receive a response from the SEC. The possibility is high that several Bitcoin ETFs would be approved in short order, igniting the next leg higher in Bitcoin prices as those ETF providers would spend considerable marketing expenses to draw in retail and institutional capital.

Exhibit 1: Projected Bitcoin path: Year-end 2023, April 2024 halving, Year-end 2024

5) On February 3, 2023, our report ‘January Effect targets Bitcoin at 45,000 by December’ [2023]. The report showed that prices continued to rise into year-end in 5 out of the last 6 cases when Bitcoin was up in January. During the last two occasions, prices doubled and as Bitcoin traded at $22,500 on February 3, there is a reasonable expectation that Bitcoin could trade higher into year-end. Price target: 45,000 by December 2023.

6) On October 28 2022, our report ‘Bitcoin might rally to 63,160 by March 2024’ (estimated Bitcoin halving April / May) indicated that there was a tendency for Bitcoin prices to bottom around 15-16 months before the next halving. This mid-halving slowdown would offer an ideal buying opportunity in October 2022. Price target: 63,160 by March 2024.

7) On July 6 2023, our report ‘Prepare for the Soaring 2024 Year-End Bitcoin Target of $125,000’ showed that the ‘1-year new high for the first time in a year’ indicator had signalled the top of the preceding three Bitcoin bull markets of 2013, 2017 and 2021 within a reasonable timeframe of 12-18 months. Bitcoin prices rose by +310% over the following 18 months. Price target: 125,731 by December 2024.

8) But this ‘1-year signal’ also indicated that Bitcoin prices consolidated for the first two months once the signal was triggered.

9) ‘Matrix on Target’ uses the proprietary Greed & Fear index to time the market and the moving average (black) of this index appears to have bottomed out as the daily signal (grey) is projecting upside pressure. After four weeks of consolidation, this indicator is tactically bullish and Bitcoin prices could resume the uptrend.

Exhibit 2: Our Greed & Fear Idx appears to bottom out (black line turns up) - bullish

10) Our price targets of $45,000 by December 2023 and $63,160 by March 2024, and $125,731 by December 2024 are achievable and backed up by data analysis.

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