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Analysts' Insights

Analysts' Insights

Crypto Markets at a Glance

👇 1) Bitcoin price is 29,412 below the 50d MA 29,887 -> this is bearish, price WoW increased by +1.3%; Ethereum price is 1,844 below the 50d MA 1,877 -> this is bearish, (WoW +0.9%); overall the trend is down -> but a +2% rally could flip the trend to bullish

👇 2) Ethereum currently underperforms Bitcoin as the trend (20d) MA shows ETH / BTC ratio is decreasing. Beta factors drive crypto, this is negative. Stay cautious

👇 3) Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility has declined to 17%, the lowest level since Nov 2018 when realized vol dropped briefly to 13%. One month later, Bitcoin dropped -46% into Dec 2018 and vol climbed back >100%. Ethereum’s 30-day vol dropped to 16%, its lowest level in history. The ETH/ BTC vol spread is now below 1 again. Historically, ETH vol traded 25% higher than Bitcoin vol, on average. Option prices are very low.

👇 4) Our Greed & Fear Index prints 54% for Bitcoin, above the 21-day moving average which signals that a rally could occur imminently. The Ethereum Greed & Fear Index prints 41%, below its moving average -> preference for Bitcoin > Ethereum (and alt-coins). The RSI for Bitcoin is 49% while the Ethereum RSI is 46%.

👇 5) The futures funding rate trades positive for Bitcoin (11.8%). This is bullish and is in the 96%ile. Many leveraged traders appear to be long BTC and expect an imminent breakout. The funding rate is positive for Ethereum (11.8%), which is bullish. The funding rate is also exceptionally high for Litecoin and Dogecoin. Despite the low volumes, there are plenty of trading opportunities when skimming the data.

👇 6) Stablecoin market cap dropped -0.5% during the last week - a mildly bearish and outstanding market cap stands at $124bn, with USDT dominance at 67%. Tether USDT’s market cap $83bn (-0.4% last 30d), USDC $25.7bn (-5% last 30d), Dai $4bn (-7% last 30d), BUSD $3.4bn (-16% last 30d) and TUSD $2.8bn (-2% last 30d).

👇 7) During the last 30-days, Ethereum has generated $170m in fees, Tron $76m, Lido Finance $54m, Uniswap $28m, Bitcoin $19m, Convex Finance $12m, BNB Chain $11m, Aave $11m, MakerDao $9m and Compound $4m. For 2023, Ethereum fees peaked in May at $450m and are currently projecting $126m for August.

👇 8) Total Value Locked (TVL) remains close to the YTD lows. Lido accounts for $15bn (+1% last 30d), MakerDao $6bn (+10% last 30d), Aave $5bn (-17% last 30d), Uniswap $3.7bn (-3% last 30d), JustLend $3.5bn (-7% last 30d) and Curve Finance $2.4bn (-33% last 30d).

👇 9) Volumes on the Ethereum change were $6.1bn during the last week (WoW change -17%), BSC $1.4bn (-33%), Arbitrum $1.2bn (-14%), zkSync Era $389m (+20%) and Thorchain $240m (+214%).

👇 10) The $130m SAND token unlock was less impactful yesterday, as many traders anticipated that event. Perp discount has moved from -28% to +13% as the low liquidity in the market has forced the perp to switch to a premium. Prices themselves were not impacted.

chart, histogram

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