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Analysts' Insights

Analysts' Insights

The Weekly CRYPTO Briefing YOU Should Read

1) We would consider taking some profits as the crypto market is showing exuberant signs. Ideally, delta should be replaced with upside call spreads in case prices continue to rally. The 10yr treasury yield is quietly climbing back up (>3.50%), this needs monitoring in terms of a warning sign. Our own Greed & Fear Indices are in red hot “Greed” mode and the perp futures premium indicates massive long positions.

2) Bitcoin price is 30,350 above the 50d MA 26,218 -> this is bullish, price WoW increased by 8.5%; Ethereum price is 2,127 above the 50d MA 1,756 -> this is bullish, price WoW increased by 14.9%; overall the trend is up -> bullish.

3) Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin currently as the trend (20d) MA shows ETH / BTC ratio is going up, crypto is driven by alpha factors, this is positive, find idiosyncratic trades.

4) The Global Crypto market cap increased by +5.2% WoW to $1.34trn, above the 50d MA ($1.18trn), which is bullish, Bitcoin dominance at 44.8% for the week (above the 50d MA 43% -> as alt coins underperforming), this is neutral.

5) Global Crypto trading volume decreased by -34.5% WoW to $52.1bn, below the 50d MA ($79.5bn), which is neutral, weekly Bitcoin volume was -47% lower than avg. while Ethereum volume was 12% higher than average.

6) Top 3 stablecoin mkt cap ($121.2bn) is in the 7%ile range, volume ($24.8bn) is in the 4%ile range (last 3m), Mkt cap WoW +0.5% or $+0.6bn, is a very bullish sign for 'risk-on' liquidity (as USDC mkt cap down while USDT mkt cap up).

7) TVL is above the 2m MA, which is positive, TVL (Total Value Locked) increased by +10.5% (or by $+5.9bn) WoW, & now stands at $72.5bn, notably Lido TVL increased by +12.9% to $12.96bn, TVL inflows driven by Staking sector with $1.73bn inflows to $13.49bn, Lido dominance 95.5%.

8) The number of active Bitcoin addresses has increased by 11.6% over the last 1 week, to 879k, this is bullish, number of active Ethereum addresses has decreased by -58.7% over the last 1 week, to 287k, this is bearish.

9) The futures funding rate trades positive for Bitcoin (10.7%), this is bullish and the funding rate is positive for Ethereum (17.7%), this is bullish. Bitcoin futures saw avg. daily liquidations of $34m, historically, liquidations print $54m, this is seen as neutral, Ethereum saw avg. daily liquidations of $28m, historically, liquidations print $49m, this is seen as neutral.

10) Our Greed & Fear Index prints 95%, while the Ethereum Greed & Fear Index prints 98%. The RSI for Bitcoin is 73% while the Ethereum RSI is at 77%.

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