Bitcoin Targets $45,000 - FOMO Is Hitting the Market
The Bitcoin futures funding rate is exceptionally high, indicating that many traders are panic buying at current levels — FOMO is back. Bitcoin dominance has reached 52.1%, and volumes are exploding as Bitcoin trades $29bn during the last 24 hours.
Earlier in the year, we set our 2023-year-end price target at $45,000 — based on our January Effect model, which predicted a massive rally. Many doubted this ambitious price target, but our analysis has consistently shown that the crypto market can be traded with our toolkit of proven trading models.
Just look at our report from two weeks ago ‘Friday the 13th – Is Crypto Nightmare about to start?’, in which we warned that Ethereum was battling to maintain the $1,550 support level and emphasised the importance of maintaining that level. Indeed, the level we identified was proven to be pivotal.
But most importantly, we demonstrated that Bitcoin tends to rally on Friday the 13th with average returns of +14% just 30 days later and a hit rate of 77% out of the 23 events. Bitcoin is now up +24% since then, notably due to a +10% rally overnight. Hence, this event was a ‘buy’.
More importantly, our September 20 report, ‘October Ignites a Bitcoin Boom: Institutions Fueling the Price Surge,’ predicted that October would be a massive month for Bitcoin. We highlighted the average returns of +20% for October, and those returns have now been achieved.
Equally significant, in that report, we showed how Bitcoin was on the verge of breaking out of its July-September consolidation phase as our Greed & Fear indicator was transitioning from ‘peak fear’ as prices re-tested the $25,000 level in the days leading up to it.
In our report from last week, 'Bitcoin ETF Approval Sets Stage for Massive $24-50bn Fiat Rush,' we presented various data analysis models indicating the potential for a game-changing influx of funds into Bitcoin, propelling prices toward the $42,000 to $56,000 range based on our regression analysis.
But there is more:
Our maximum bullish 2023 outlook report (published in December 2022) pointed out how macro-economic data was becoming a turbo-tailwind. In our October 9 report, ‘Bitcoin is Better Than Digital Gold’, we demonstrated that when the Fed paused their rate-hiking cycle in January 2019, Bitcoin rallied by +325% over the subsequent seven months. At the time of publishing the report, Bitcoin was trading at $27,554.
Interestingly, on September 28, we questioned, ‘Bitcoin Miners, the Ultimate bet for 2024?’ Our top pick, Galaxy Digital, has only seen a modest gain of +6% since the report, as the equity market went through some broader weakness. Nevertheless, a captivating divergence is emerging between the Bitcoin price and mining companies which can be leveraged. Check out our regression analysis for the mining with the most convexity upside.
We also suggested buying the $28,000 strike calls with an October 27 expiry, which were trading at $250 earlier in the month and an implied volatility of 30%. This was exceptionally cheap. Those calls are trading at an implied volatility of 97% and a value of $5,200, yielding a remarkable 21x return on your investment suggestion.
Based on our analysis, those returns were achievable as we have guided our readers through this wild ride. Bitcoin is breaking above the July $31,500 resistance level, showing that $45,000 is achievable by year-end. While our prediction might have been bold, our analysis is based on a proven investment process that has been incredibly successful this year.
We may be onto something significant once again.
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