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Analysts' Insights

Analysts' Insights

Bitcoin FAILED at its 50d MA - What it means

1) Bitcoin price is 26,525 below the 50d MA 26,993 -> this is bearish, Ethereum price is 1,589 below the 50d MA 1,683 -> this is bearish. Overall, the trend is down and stays bearish. Bitcoin attempted to break its 50d MA (BUT FAILED, this could open the door for more downside). October tends to be seasonal bullish for Bitcoin but without a break above its 50d MA, we would stay cautious.

2) Ethereum currently underperforms Bitcoin as the trend (20d) MA shows the ETH / BTC ratio is going down, beta factors drive crypto; this is negative, so stay cautious.

3) Our Greed & Fear Index prints 56%, while the Ethereum Greed & Fear Index prints 21%. The RSI for Bitcoin is 50%, while the Ethereum RSI is at 40%.

4) Ethereum generated $17.9m in fees last week, the lowest since December 26, 2022. Fees have peaked out in May this year and are gradually declining, this continues to be a crucial development for Ether prices. With less than one week left in September, fees are (so far) 50% less than in August.

5) Tron weekly feed generation was $19.9m almost higher than Ethereum’s $20.0m while Lido Finance generated $10.9m and Bitcoin $8.4m. Friend.Tech generated $6.8m while Uniswap printed $4.8m in fees for the week.

6) Chart technically, as Bitcoin failed to stay >$27,000 last week, we also have to register the breakout attempt as failed again, and if Bitcoin trades below <$26,000 then the market might attempt another break lower.

7) We mostly worry about Ethereum as weak fundamentals plus a lack of hype around the EIP-4844 upgrade (which should come sometime in Q4 2023) could make the blockchain slowly obsolete. Holders do not have unlimited patience and these upgrades are not fast enough and are marginal.

8) Ethereum’s failure to rally above $1,650 is of the utmost concern as a break lower could have major implications for the altcoin sentiment.

9) Crypto market cap stands at 1.06trn, 2% higher than the week before, with avg. weekly volume of 30.6bn, 13% higher, Bitcoin dominance is 48.9%. Weekly Bitcoin volume was 11.5bn, -7% less than avg. while Ethereum volume was 4.2bn, -20% than average.

10) Tether USDT market cap is 83.1bn, 0% than avg. while volume was 24.3bn, 20% higher than average. Binance avg. daily derivatives volume was 23.2bn, -15% lower than avg. with mkt share of 46%, Binance avg. daily spot volume was 4bn, -11% lower than avg. with mkt share of 55%.

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