Bitcoin’s Epic Surge, 45,000 Rally Imminent
👇 1) 2023 is turning out exactly as we have envisioned it, & more Bitcoin gains are to come.
👇 2) On December 2, we published ‘With a macro tailwind, Bitcoin might be 29,000 in 2023’. This thesis on our inflation model predicted a sharp decline in US inflation and a bottoming out in Ethereum revenues. As Bitcoin prices were trading at 16,200 our report indicated +80% upside.
👇 3) On February 3, we upgraded our Bitcoin price target & suggested we can see a rally toward 45,000 by year-end as the ‘January effect’ implied a +100% rally from the end of January level – which was at 22,500. This model had an 83% chance of success.
👇 4) While some are talking about the 2024 Bitcoin halving cycling where ‘we tend to see a rally’, those comments are rather vague. On October 28, we published our ideal timing entry for March 2024 (expected) halving based on our ‘halving model’ which suggested Bitcoin could trade at 63,160 by then. This presented a +207% upside from the 20,400 level.
👇 5) July tends to be a strong month for Bitcoin when prices have finished positive in 7 out of the last 10 years, with average returns of +11% (see our October 28 report). The 2020, 2021, & 2022 returns were +24%, +20%, & +27%, respectively. Therefore, the probability that Bitcoin will be +10-20% higher during the next 30 days is high. Hence, Bitcoin could be at 33,000 to 36,000 by August.
👇 6) Bitcoin tends to move 10,000 points up, only to retrace 5,000 & then rally another 10,000 points (until we reach 45,000 by year-end). We have seen a rally from nearly 15,000 to 25,000 only to drop back to 20,000 due to the US banking crisis, then rally another 10,000 points to 30,000 & sell off to 25,000 because of the Binance-SEC lawsuit. Now we appear on the way to 35,000 as the expectations for the Bitcoin ETFs approval will bring more US institutions & US retail into this space (see our report from June 21).
👇 7) Bitcoin has the strongest rallies during US trading hours, indicating that US institutions are buying Bitcoin while other regions are less active. Claiming that ‘Crypto is dead in the US’ appears to be a misconception.
👇 8) Our ‘Hong Kong Policy Sentiment Index’ continues to print around the zero percentile range (0% to 100%), signaling that HK is not full-steam into crypto trading (yet).
👇 9) Leung Fung-yee, CEO of the Securities and Futures Commission, pointed out that the SFC’s goal is not to make HK a cryptocurrency trading center, but it also recognizes that cryptocurrency trading is an important part of the virtual asset ecosystem, & welcomes the application of related technologies to financial services, incl. bond tokenization & investment funds.
👇 10) Our Bitcoin Greed & Fear index is trading at 94% (0-100), indicating that we might consolidate for a few days before we rally again. The RSI is at 68%. The trend is still higher – our price target remains at 45,000 for end of 2023.
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