Up +40% YtD - Are you KILLING it too?
1) News is hitting the tape that the U.S. debt ceiling issue is largely resolved. This leads to fresh buying of risk assets. Our December 2022 published 2023 market outlook stated, "A very bullish macro backdrop will lift all assets in 2023”. This is undoubtedly happening with Bitcoin +66% and Nasdaq +24% year-to-date.
2) Our multi-asset portfolio is up +40% YtD and more gains are likely to come now.
3) Similar to the March 2020 Silicon Valley Bank failure situation, investors only started to buy when the issue was resolved or when the authorities signaled broad support. Back in March, unlimited deposit insurance was floated.
4) So many investors were scared about the debt ceiling and the potential default by the U.S. government – which is just so unlikely. Now, they need to find something else to be bearish about while the market likely rallies.
5) In fact, the June to August window has offered the best returns for the Nasdaq with the last time the QQQs declined in July was in 2007 – all other years the ETF was up! During the last 10 years, the June to August three-month window has returned, on average, +8% for investors.
6) July is also historically very strong for Bitcoin with average returns of +11% and the June to August average return clocking in +23%.
7) Bitcoin is also trying to break out of the triangle again; this time, the breakout could succeed.
8) Hong Kong is expected to allow retail crypto trading from June 1 (Thursday), which could provide the market with new momentum.
9) The best-performing larger-cap cryptocurrency is “NEO”, or “Chinese Ethereum”. As investors are positioning themselves for the Hong Kong opening event. During the last week, NEO is up +19%.
10) HT (Huobi) is up +14% during the last week as Huobi is actively pursuing a Hong Kong-focused strategy.
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