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Analysts' Insights

Analysts' Insights

Bitcoin breakout projects 36,000 next?

1) Bitcoin prices have been trading in a narrowing triangle about to be broken to the upside. Technically, this could project a move higher by an equal amount when the triangle started to be formed – a range roughly the equivalent of 6,100 points.

2) This could lead to a 6,100-point move higher in Bitcoin prices and set a target of 35,000/36,000 - roughly +20% higher from here.

3) While the Fed has raised interest rates by another 25bps, the probability that this was the last hike for this cycle is high, which could set up the market for another strong rally.

4) At the same time, we continuously see bank failure, which requires liquidity injections and guarantees from the government for any acquiring party.

5) After the recent earnings season for U.S. companies, stock buybacks are now resuming with expectations for $1 trillion in buybacks this year. This will continue to be a general tailwind for stocks and risk assets.

6) While trading volume has declined recently, the path higher sees only limited resistance. Transactions on the Bitcoin network have reached new all-time highs as the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network has remained strong near 1 million addresses.

7) Projecting those data points for the whole month of May would see a strong pick up in Bitcoin transaction fees as a percent of total miner revenue to the level we saw last in May 2021.

8) Crypto sentiment has markedly improved with meme coins being actively traded, $DinoLFG (mkt cap $21m) pumped +500% in two weeks, $PEPE is up +500% in two weeks as well (mkt cap $482m), Wojak is up +600% in one week (mkt cap $42m), Chad is up +450% in one week (mkt cap $3.5m), and 4Token is up +252% in just one week ($8m).

9) While most of these meme coins are small and insignificant, their trading activity shows that sentiment has changed.

10) With Bitcoin breaking higher, stock buybacks supporting stocks, the Fed appearing on hold, positive Bitcoin transaction data, and a shift in sentiment towards a more (irresponsibly) positive outlook driven by meme coins, it is challenging to be bearish.

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