“Newton’s third law. You gotta leave something behind.”
- Dr. Mann, Interstellar
All the civilians that bought price exposure to Bitcoin for the first time through the newly minted ETFs have suffered a common frustration - when you buy Bitty for the first time, it usually tanks.Just ask anyone that was eager for the CME Bitcoin Futures to launch in December 2017 and how they felt about the polar vortex that followed.
Why does this happen?It could be because the Orange Coin was only on your radar in the first place cos of some third degree FOMO, and you only pulled the trigger at the pico top of a narrative playing out. Or because OGs simply relish in baptism by fire and intense sell pressure flushes out the tourist early on.Either way, you were the only one that bought the news and now you feel like a chump.But fear not, gentle ETF buyers. You might be nursing a 20% loss, but these kinds of pullbacks are completely normal in crypto bull cycles.Sure, in TradFi, this would mean there's a bear in the woods, the markets are crashing, and the industry’s done. But you’re in a different world now, with more dips than a side of fries.Life 'round hereIf we agree the current bull market started in November 2022, then this is the fourth 20% pullback of the current cycle. In the 2020-2021 run, these corrections happened every 70 days or so, similar to the cycle before it.
That’s not to say it’s pain-free, or that we know what’s ahead with absolute certainty, but it does simply put big pullbacks in the right perspective. Things are different 'round here.
Remember that line from Interstellar when they land on the ocean planet where time moves slower than back on the spaceship cos of…quantum gravity:
You've left planet TradFi, and the time dilution means that we move at a different pace.We go from boom to bust and back to boom before the stock market has decided if we're in a recession, depression, or hyper growth phase.We're welding Layer 3s between chains while Big Money has only RSVPd as 'maybe' to the original Layer 1 party.We drop coinage on early adopters, while gen. pop is excluded from the pre-IPO taste test.Here, we all play by the same rules.Same row seatsWhatever is supposed to be the next catalyst, it’s already priced in. Crypto markets are free, global, easily accessible, and everyone has the same information as anyone else if they look hard enough.There isn’t a front row; we’re all at the same gun show, and if they don’t know you can fill ‘em in tomorrow.
Bitcoin went from $27,000 to $49,000 (up 80%) between BlackRock’s initial BTC ETF filing last June and the official launch of the fund. That was crypto front running Wall Street Bitcoin buyers.And you know what happened on Day 1? Ethereum went way up because CrackRock also filed for an ETH ETF. That’s crypto front running Wall Street ETH buyers. We're always moving on to the next thing, one step ahead of the pack.
Even the current downturn could be Bitcoin front running a mini-banking crisis in the US if Crypto Hayes is right about the BTFP not being renewed. After the severe market correction concludes, Hayes expects crypto to break into a sprint as the eventual conversion of rate cuts and money printing talk by the Fed triggers a ‘flight to quality.’Preparing for scenarios and theories to play out is what the options market is made for, and in his piece, Hayes also lays out what his options trading strategy is.
Of course, the SEC jailbreaking GBTC units through the ETF conversion, which allowed the FTX bankruptcy estate to sell a couple milly, has also played a role in this particular dip. Outflows at Grayscale’s GBTC have remained high to the point that Bitcoin ETF flows show a negative trend for the first time.But the idea that crypto is a priced-in front running free market that moves faster than Planet TradFi stands.
The market sees you coming, and prices accordingly.The market likes a dog wif a hat, not a dog like an egg.The market will find Satashi’s quantum cat, dead or alive.
BRC20 Trading Zone, Made with Cobo
BIT has partnered with Cobo, a prominent digital asset custody technology provider to launch a BRC20 token spot trading zone, allowing users to showcase their positions and allocations enabled by Cobo's wallet-as-a-service solution.As the world's first omni-custody platform, Cobo is pioneering institutional-grade custody solutions that support the new BRC20 token standard.
Through this collaboration, users can easily deposit, withdraw, and trade BRC20 tokens on BIT, facilitating seamless participation in the BRC20 token ecosystem.Furthermore, users can also benefit from savings on gas fees when trading, significantly lowering entry barriers for more user to participate.
In the Spotlight: Chiliz (CHZ) heats up
Top 5 tokens by profit using the Rebalancing Market Maker Strategy (RMM)
Automatically buy low and sell high with BIT's RMM tool.
Market analyses from our partners
Market sentiment appears to be stabilizing as major term IVs decline, with short-term IVs consolidating around 47%.
Despite maintained VRP and Skew levels, sentiment remains cautious, lacking significant profit opportunities.
A notable $40 million block trade featured selling February ATM calls and buying March OTM calls for protection.
Large investors seem reserved about an immediate uptrend, avoiding significant shorts but expressing a lack of optimism for a substantial rise.
Caution prevails, and a potential market downturn could be the next significant development.
- Berachain's Artio Testnet Launch: Witnessing Berachain's Artio testnet launch was nothing short of historic! With 116,700 active addresses on launch day, the excitement was palpable. Despite initial enthusiasm, active addresses saw fluctuations due to network congestion issues. However, the surge in ecosystem NFT prices indicates growing interest and potential future airdrops.
- $TIA Supply Events:Celestia's ($TIA) high APYs and potential airdrops have garnered attention. Despite upcoming supply events, market resilience is evident. The impact of token releases on 27 January remains uncertain, but recent price trends suggest optimism among investors.
- $INJ's Performance:Similar to $TIA, $INJ has seen remarkable performance and faces supply events. Despite concerns, recent market trends indicate resilience. Addressing potential token releases, market dynamics remain positive for both assets.
- Solana's Vibrant Ecosystem:LD Capital's Solana Ecosystem Fund launch and Jupiter's $JUP token announcement reflect Solana's thriving ecosystem. While the impact on Solana's price varies, community engagement remains strong, especially with Jupiter's upcoming token launch and Solana token extensions.
- Hedera's $HBAR Allocation:Hedera's allocation of 4.86b $HBAR for ecosystem growth highlights its commitment to development. However, market response indicates limited immediate impact, potentially due to Hedera's niche market positioning.
For more insights and detailed analyses, dive into the full report:
- Finding Satoshi's Quantum Cat - NFT Now
- Yellen or Talkin'? - Crypto Hayes
- The New Players Won't Act Like The Old Players - Pomp