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Questions from the Audience

Questions from the Audience

“Now I am become eth, destoyer of fiat”

- Blockenheimer

Questions from the Audience

Where is the parabolic ETF rally?

That’s not what will happen. The new money coming in will take time. Larry Fink may have been Orange Pilled, but there are many more cogs in the TradFi machine and they all need time to adjust their sales pitch to advise clients what the ideal risk/reward structure is for Bitcoin.The ETF money won’t wash over us like a Hoist the Colours Wave, it’s more like the slow and steady pull of an undercurrent. And keep in mind it’s not just going to have an effect on money coming in - ETF buyers just want price exposure, so they will sell into rallies to bag 20% profits because they need to rebalance their portfolios.

Is the ETH ETF likely?
Maybe. It’s tricky. On the one hand, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has criticized her own organization for dragging its feet on the BTC ETF, and in relation to an Ethereum follow up approval she said “That’s not how we’re going to do our approvals moving forward, but the facts and circumstances vary immensely with each ETF application.”Those last few words weigh heavy on the other hand.

Bitcoin is largely acknowledged as a commodity, an asset close to digital gold without a CEO, Board, or Employees of any kind. Ethereum is a little bit more complex. Not too long ago it was put on Gensler’s List of “smells like securities spirit”, so it’s no surprise that the SEC has already delayed the decision on the Grayscale and BlackRock spot Ethereum ETF applications.

This is a can that will be kicked down the road many times. Perhaps till after the US elections in Nov 2024.

Will the ETF make ETH great again?
The price of ETH will benefit no doubt in a volatile fashion, which is great for futures and options traders. But for daily active users, that doesn't really matter.Sorry Flat ETHers, but your chain is simply unusable.The other day I had the pleasure of touring another civilian around the gleaming halls of our DeFi Citadel, but the Ethereum wing is dusty, the doors creak, and I don’t think anyone’s cracked a window in 3 years.

There is no way to explain to a civilian, who is chain-agnostic by default, why it’s okay that it costs $20 in gas fees to swap my 1$ ETH dust for USDC. Or that it costs $3 to bridge that dust to a Layer 2. How are new users supposed to experiment and try things out if every click costs you a couple bucks?

I also don’t want to have conversations like this anymore:

- So to make things cheaper, you can send your ETH to a different network, which makes it cheaper to do things.
- Oh ok, but I already sent it to my MetaMask.
- No problem, we can bridge it to Polygon for example, and then you can use Aave at a lower cost but you do have to change the network in MetaMask.
- What does that mean?
- Hm, it’s kinda like you still have the same mobile phone, but now you’re in different country so you have to insert a new SIM card to access the local network.
- Right…
- But you need to transfer your phone credit from the old SIM to…

No.That phase should be behind us.

Ethereum has been great, and paved the way for DeFi and the many new chains that came after it. But to repurpose Vitalik’s own birthday pensive dub: maybe it’s time for the next generation to take over.

You write a lot about the Solana ting, are you a SOL maxi?
No, I’ve also walked the plains of Avalanche, Cosmos, Celestia, Osmosis, Injective, Polygon, Arbitrum, Kuji, and Terrible Terra. Some are far easier to use than others, and this is unsurprisingly a huge part of what makes a chain good.It’s all fun and games to trade price action alone, but at some point you should go to the restaurant you supposedly believe in and eat their food.

The cosmos galaxy is overall a fine experience, and some apps are sleek while others are way too offensive to even try. I have to say, it’s a little overwhelming with all the different chains that intermingle in the UI of some apps, even if IBC transfers are easy to do.

For example, you are likely eligible for the Milkyway airdrop if you liquid stake TIA and get milkTIA on the TIA chain. You can then use those Liquid Staking Tokens again in lending/borrowing pools to also qualify for Quasar or Demex airdrops, but you have to migrate your milkTIA to the Osmosis chain and then you just lost half your audience.People want to explore without feeling lost.

So in that sense, I am a little bit of a Soul Man just because the whole experience is quite smooth across apps, and the Phantom wallet doesn’t spook newcomers like MetaMask does.But at the end of the day, I don’t really have a favourite team. It can either come down to everything happening on one chain (is Wanchain still a thing?) or a collection of interconnected specialised blockchains running Celestia underneath.

As long as we reach a point where I can get a civilian ready in 3 steps: Get a wallet, send some tokens, start exploring.

What’s happening in the BRC20 space?
Things are moving fast. There are now over 14,000 tokens of all different kinds. There’s meme coins, NFT collections, and even fully fledged scalability solutions like Layer 2s. It’s a rapidly developing space, breathing new life into the Bitcoin blockchain with the potential to create BTC-based DeFi protocols.

BIT is adding support for these new tokens at a rapid rate, so if you want to get in on the action, you need to get on to BIT - home for trading BRC20 tokens.


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Technically Speaking

Market analyses from our partners

Yesterday's FOMC meeting delivered a hawkish surprise, sending shockwaves through the market. Despite the removal of the hiking bias, Chairman Powell's remarks dashed hopes of a March rate cut.

Here's a brief breakdown:

The Fed's explicit push-back against a March rate cut caught the market off-guard, leading to a jump in OIS rates and easing probability to ~30%.

Despite initial attempts to hedge, Powell's firm stance on rate cuts for March fueled uncertainty, causing 2yr yields to spike and equities to plummet.

Outside the Fed, events like the coupon supply announcement and NYCB's dividend cuts added to market jitters. Earnings disappointments from tech giants further weighed on sentiment.

While crypto prices remained subdued amid the FOMC drama, developments in the court hearing shed light on the sector's resilience, hinting at potential positive outcomes amidst challenges.

BTC Options

- 22,000 BTC options set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.66 and a Maxpain point at $42,000. Notional value: $960 million.

ETH Options

- 230,000 ETH options expiring, featuring a Put Call Ratio of 0.33 and a Maxpain point of $2,300. Notional value: $530 million.

Market insights:
- Crypto market stability this week, with RV and IV trending lower.
- Bitcoin spot ETFs attracting incremental capital, amidst a slowdown in grayscale sell-off.
- Block trading quieter, with some whales reducing positions, mainly profit-taking from ETF bets.
- Speculation on bitcoin halving generates bullish sentiment for the year ahead.

Curious about TradFi's foray into the crypto space? Here's a snapshot of what's brewing:

 VanEck's Interest: Beyond Bitcoin ETFs, VanEck eyes tokens like $MPL (Maple Finance) and RWA protocols, signaling broader interest in the crypto ecosystem.

 JP Morgan's Blockchain Endeavors: Despite Jamie Dimon's skepticism, JP Morgan delves deep into blockchain tech, executing Singapore's first institutional DeFi trade and exploring tokenization with Avalanche and other protocols.

 L2 Summer in Cancun?: Ethereum's Dencun upgrade promises to ignite activity within the ETH L2 space, akin to Solana's surge in 2023. With reduced gas fees and protocols like Eigenlayer opening up, the ETH L2 landscape is ripe for growth.

 HydroFi Launches: Injective's Hydro protocol debuts, offering liquid staking opportunities. Stake $INJ for potential airdrops and explore new avenues in DeFi.
For more insights and detailed analyses, dive into the full report:

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Required Reading

  1. The end of my childhood - Vitalik
  2. Read. Write. Own. - Chris Dixon

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